We are breaking down every 4A East playoff team (and East Wake), their first-round matchup, and their chances of making a run.
(1) New Hanover vs (32) Athens Drive
New Hanover and Athens Drive match up well, both have etic guards that like to cause havoc on the defensive end. Athens Drive has been up and down all season but they're better than the 32nd seed. New Hanover was able to run through their conference undefeated with their only losses being to Northwood and Hopewell.
New Hanover is super young, four of their top five scorers are freshmen or sophomores. They have less talent on their roster this season compared to last year and were a second-round exit then. Athens Drive hasn't proven that they can win this game but they are 100% capable of pulling this insane upset.
The winner of this game won't be favored against Wake Forest or Green Level but this entire 8-team section of the bracket is up in the air and anyone can advance to the regional semis out of it.
(16) Wake Forest vs (17) Green Level
This should be the best game of the first round. Both teams got blown out in their conference championship games, both are uber-talented, and both are well-coached. Wake Forest has underperformed this season given their high expectations and loaded roster, while Green Level has lived up to every expectation set on the young program this season.
Wake Forest has a big four of Alston, Smalls, Grant, and Lucas that can compete with any other four-man unit in the region, but outside of that, they struggle to find production. They've had some bad losses this season, headlined by losing back-to-back games to Rolesville and Heritage early this month.
Green Level is one of the youngest teams in the playoffs, with just two seniors in the rotation. They don't play a ton of guys and they'll need young prospects to produce to win this game.
This Green Level program's best years are ahead of them (specifically the next 2-3 years) but this season's team is more than capable of advancing to the regional semis and maybe even the regional finals. Wake Forest has a lower ceiling given their ability to lose to bad teams but they too could make a run to the third or fourth round.
(8) Cardinal Gibbons vs (25) D.H. Conley
DH Conley has been struggling as of late and Cardinal Gibbons has been on fire, even with their CAP-6 championship game loss. Cardinal Gibbons struggled earlier in the year and lost a lot of games, tanking their record and their resume. If you just look at games from the past few weeks, Gibbons is one of the best teams in the region and this game should be theirs to lose. DH Conley isn't an easy team to beat but Gibbons has more talent and a deeper bench.
Gibbons has the potential to advance all the way to round four if they can make it out of this game.
(9) Overhills vs (24) Broughton
For the Xs and Os lovers out there, this should be a great game to watch. Overhills plays an up-tempo and chaotic brand of basketball while Broughton relies more on creation in the half-court. Talent-wise, these teams are pretty even and the winner will be whichever side can adapt to the other style of play.
The winner of this game will play the winner of the Cardinal Gibbons and DH Conley matchup. This specific four-team cluster is probably the widest open first two rounds in the entire East.
Both teams have third-round potential.
(5) Holly Springs vs (28) Southeast Raleigh
Of the bottom 4-6 teams in the bracket, SE Raleigh has the best combination of the roster and play style to upset some really good teams. That being said, Holly Springs is built to not be upset by lower-ranked teams. To beat the Hawks you will need the right combination of talent, depth, adjustments, and luck. SE Raleigh has a lot of young talent and if enough of them step up then they could make some noise in this game.
The winner will play the winner of the Hoggard and Leesville Road game. Leesville Road already beat Holly Springs this season, although they've been up and down since that game. Holly Springs and SE Raleigh match up well with their possible next opponent.
Holly Springs has state championship potential and SE Raleigh (if they win this one) has a realistic chance to make it to the third round.
(12) Hoggard vs (21) Leesville Road
Jack Voth has been dominating the beach this season, averaging 19.5p and 7.4r per game on the year. Due to him playing about as far east as you can get, the rest of the state doesn't know who he is. Leesville Road has 3-4 guys that they can throw at him like Wil Murray, Grady Whitt, and Cole Lanford.
Hoggard should be the (theoretical) betting favorite due to their ability to consistently win this season and because Leesville Road has struggled with consistency since beating Holly Springs back in December.
Both sides have the roster and coaching to potentially upset Holly Springs in the next round but Leesville Road has a better chance of doing it because they already have.
(13) Panther Creek vs (20) Pine Forest
This game is Panther Creek's to lose. Despite the loss to Green Level in the SWAC semifinals last week, the Catamounts are one of the hottest teams in the region, winning seven in a row before that loss. If Amari Odom is in the rotation and playing as he does then there's no reason why PC can't make another ridiculously deep run.
Pine Forest is so up and down and is probably the most confusing team in this article. They have several impressive wins as well as a few really bad losses. Despite the weird resume, they have the talent and athletes to match up with PC and potentially beat them. Their roster construction also sets them up to match up well with both Garner and Holly Springs should they make it far enough.
(4) Garner vs (29) Fuquay-Varina
This is the only conference matchup in the first round of games and it's also the only matchup where both teams have beaten the other one this season. Since beating Garner, Fuquay-Varina is 3-4, going 0-3 against playoff teams. Since losing that game, Garner is 9-0, going 3-0 against playoff teams.
Garner is by the better team right now and they have been all season outside of that one game. They've had just one win within 10 points during their 9-game win streak. They have the talent, depth, and coaching to make a playoff run but their lack of experience is at least mildly alarming.
Fuquay-Varina has the conference POY in Jake Hart and two other all-conference selections in Andrew Schneider and Dylan Setzer. This big three will need to be clicking for the struggling Bengals to pull this one out.
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(3) Millbrook vs (30) Riverside-Durham
Millbrook is rolling right now and anything other than a dominant first-round victory would be objectively surprising.
The winner will play either Hillside or Enloe in the second round, both teams would give Millbrook an exciting matchup. I would expect Hillside to be a slightly tougher game for Millbrook but both of them would present a challenge.
Millbrook has state championship potential and this should be a statement game for them.
(14) Hillside vs (19) Enloe
Enloe at Hillside should provide exciting basketball and a high-level environment. Very similar roster construction, both with r star(s) and athletes all around. Enloe's Ethan Montague has been ELITE this season, absolutely dominating as an athletic wing that shoots over 40% from three. Hillside has their duo of Jayde Braswell (14/5/4/2) and Devin Sims (14/9/1/2) that have been tearing teams apart all season. Braswell is a lead guard, Montague is a scoring wing, and Sims is more of an inside-out athlete so I'm not sure who matches up with who, and they might not even guard each other.
Both schools will have a good crowd in Hillside's gym and the physicality and chippiness should be high. Both schools have had big wins and puzzling losses so whichever version of themselves shows up will decide who wins.
A matchup with Millbrook in the second round will be a high-level affair, with Hillside already playing them this season and losing by just 6. Enloe matches up fairly well with them as well.
Hillside is playing better and has home court so they will be the (theoretical) betting favorite but it's never safe to bet against Ethan Montague and Coach Poobie Chapman.
(6) Jordan vs (27) Ashley
Jordan has the talent, experience, coaching, and depth to make it out of the east and this game will be their opening statement in what should be a long playoff run.
Ashley has had a solid season but they do not have the talent, the athletes, or the experience to keep up with Durham's finest.
(11) Laney vs (22) Wakefield
Of all of the beach teams, Laney has the best chance to make a deep run due to their size and athleticism. With that being said, Wakefield is probably the worst possible matchup for Laney at this seed. Between Yancey, Spencer, and Benjamin, the Wolverines have the athletes to guard Laney's Genwright and Vaughn.
I think Wakefield has the talent to win but Laney's ability to close out games and their home-court advantage should make them the (theoretical) betting favorites.
Either team will have a tough time with their second-round matchup in Jordan and an even tougher time in the third-round against Millbrook.
(7) Lumberton vs (26) Clayton
Lumberton is an interesting team because their 22-5 record is overshadowed by their clear lack of a signature win. Their only wins over a 4A playoff team were against the 31st seed Purnell Swett who they beat by 44 in December, 3 in January, and 3 in February. Pine Forest beat them twice and Seventy-First beat them three times. Clayton has a similar, albeit less talented, roster construction to both of those teams, centered around big man Andrew Grimes and complimented by a handful of more-than-capable guards. Like always in this type of matchup, the 7-seed will be favored but it's far away from a foregone conclusion.
Whoever wins this one will be favored in the second round against either New Bern or Pinecrest before more than likely running into the Richmond County buzzsaw in round 3.
(10) New Bern vs (23) Pinecrest
New Bern has played some good teams tough this year, beating DH Conley twice and taking a game off of South Central. Their star senior, Will Brimmer, will determine how far this team can go.
This game is more of a toss-up but I like New Berns’ chances to make a run more than I like Pinecrest's chances.
This should be one of the closer games but given that Pinecrest will have to travel about 3 hours and that should deter a large number of fans to travel with them, New Bern will be more of a home-court advantage than usual and that should be the deciding factor.
(15) Sanderson vs (18) Chapel Hill
Throughout this article, I've claimed a handful of times that a certain game will be the best one to watch, but for the Xs and Os lovers, this is the one. Sanderson is led by superstar sophomore guard Nathan Fife while Chapel Hill is led by star senior wing Ryan Mackinnon. Both players are surrounded by a gaggle of serviceable role players and both teams have had almost identical seasons. Sanderson has a handful of impressive wins but the fashion in which they lose games shows a limited ceiling. Chapel Hill has everything but a quality win, going 2-6 against 4A playoff teams with both wins coming against 30-seed Riverside-Durham.
Both teams are well-coached and are systematically solid. They throw games away. Despite their stars, their lack of other high-end talent and athleticism will hinder them against Richmond in the second round but if they manage to get through they would be favored in round 3.
Sanderson has shown they can beat good teams whereas Chapel Hill hasn't. In a matchup this close, the ability to win will give Sanderson the edge.
(2) Richmond County vs (31) Purnell Swett
Paul McNeil just committed to NC State less than 24 hours ago (as of this writing) and there is no way possible that he lets his team lose the 2v31 game after that. Richmond beat Purnell Swett 81-45 in the season opener, and that was before McNeil was even on the team. They even turned around 2 weeks later and beat them by 44 when McNeil came back.
Richmond has been insanely dominant this year with their only two losses coming to #1 in the west Myers Park (without McNeil) and regional powerhouse Knoxville Christian. Their smallest margin of victory this season is 11. This team has state championship aspirations and state championship talent. They'll have to get through Millbrook or Jordan to make the East finals but they won't be the underdog in any game leading up to the state finals.
(10) East Wake vs (23) Northside-Jax
East Wake lost their conference championship game to CB Aycock by one point in overtime. Despite that, they should still be favored to win against 23rd-seed Northside-Jacksonville. They have a good mix of youth and experience, along with enough athletes and scorers to win the games they’re supposed to win.
Even if they win this game, East Wake will run into the 3-point shooting buzzsaw that is First Flight. The Dobie brothers and Eli Hawk will be favored in that match and should be looked at to make a deep run of their own.
