Although the month of February is just starting, there’s arguably no better time to look at the NBA Draft landscape. It’s still prior to the NCAA Tournament (where certain players will inevitably blow up and see their stock take a massive rise), yet we have a large enough sample size to evaluate those who are being projected as draft selections. It goes without saying, but the first two picks already seem set in stone with Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson being placed in a separate tier from everyone else. Additionally, guys like Brandon Miller, GG Jackson, Noah Clowney, and numerous others have steadily trended up draft boards and find themselves in the mix as potential lottery selections. That being said, it feels like not enough folks are talking about the best rebounder to come through college basketball over the last decade: Oscar Tshiebwe.
It should come as no surprise to see his name following that incredibly high praise, especially for those who have already seen him play. Tshiebwe is basically a one-of-one player in today’s game. He’s built his foundation by being one of the toughest, most physical, high-motor players in the country, but that’s been evident since his high school days. He’s always been wired differently from others, even as a young, developing prospect (though it definitely didn’t hurt to have an unbelievably toned frame with ridiculously long arms and powerful explosiveness). Tshiebwe is among the very few players who embrace doing the dirty work and thankless responsibilities, and that’s exactly what’s going to blaze his path into the NBA.
Despite some team struggles for this current Kentucky squad, Tshiebwe is still putting up mesmerizing statistics–both traditional and advanced. It’s worth noting that his teams have finished in the top 25 in each of the last three seasons. Sure, Kentucky and West Virginia are prestigious programs, but it’s not a coincidence that the big man started every game of his college career and posted gaudy numbers consistently throughout that span. Just look at his averages from year to year:
Freshman Year (2019-20): 11.2 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 0.4 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 1.0 BPG with 55/NA/71 shooting splits in 23.2 MPG
Sophomore Year (2020-21): 8.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.4 SPG, 0.4 BPG with 52/NA/61 shooting splits in 19.9 MPG
Junior Year (2021-22): 17.4 PPG, 15.2 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.6 BPG with 61/NA/69 shooting splits in 31.9 MPG
Senior Year (2022-Current): 16.6 PPG, 13.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG with 59/NA/68 shooting splits in 32.7 MPG
It’s difficult to look over the raw numbers and walk away feeling anything other than impressed, simply because his identity is so rare. To help clarify how unreal his rebounding numbers are, consider the fact that he’s currently tenth in NCAA history in rebounds per game and third among players since 1998. The nine guys ahead of him' Shaquille O’Neal, Paul Millsap, Adonal Foyle, Warren Kidd, Malik Rose, Jervaughn Scales, David Robinson, Kenneth Faried, and Tim Duncan. Eight of the nine listed players went to the NBA, and Tshiebwe will soon be joining that group.
The advanced numbers only continue to support the notion that Tshiebwe should be more heavily prioritized by scouts and general managers. While PER (player efficiency rating) is somewhat skewed in favor of big men who rebound and block shots, Tshiebwe does rank eighth all-time in college basketball (since 2009-10 when the metric was introduced). The more you dive into his profile, the more you see the low-hanging comparison to the aforementioned Faired. Although their respective play styles have a lot of similarities, it seems more likely that Tshiebwe should be able to carve out a more useful, modernized role. Given what he provides as a defender, rebounder, and in terms of energy, why wouldn’t he be a great rotational piece' It feels like he could be at least as impactful as someone like Montrezl Harrell, who has been a difference-maker for a variety of teams. Regardless, NBA folks would be wise to start paying closer attention to Tshiebwe—as he’s certainly going to be more valuable in the League than his current draft projection implies.