Over the recent years, many college players declared for the draft to simply test the waters while maintaining their eligibility. It allows guys to feel out the process and receive feedback on their current draft status. Yesterday, Drake Powell of UNC announced he will be entering the NBA Draft with zero intent of returning to college. What does this mean, both for Powell and the Tar Heels?
For UNC, it’s quite rough. First, Ian Jackson departed for St. John’s, and now their other star freshman is headed for greener pastures. It’s purely speculative, but there might be cause for concern within this program. Right now, they are in a challenging spot. Even as blue-blood programs have adapted to the times, UNC has always found success in developing young players who pay dividends down the road. That’s just not happening anymore.
Regardless, the 19-year-old Powell enters the NBA Draft after a freshman season where he averaged 7.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.7 SPG, and 0.7 BPG with 48/38/65 shooting splits. The raw numbers might not seem crazy, but they do highlight Powell’s efficiency and effectiveness while playing in a low-usage role. While his PER is somewhat average, there are several advanced metrics that play in Powell’s favor. Unsurprisingly, every defensive figure is a positive. He was just outside the top ten ACC players in Defensive Box Plus/Minus (often viewed as the top defensive metric), only behind rim-protectors and other elite perimeter defenders. What is possibly the most intriguing about Powell’s draft profile is how well he shot the ball at UNC. His pathway to success was always as a 3-and-D piece, but there were real questions surrounding his consistency from beyond the arc. The 37.9% figure is incredibly encouraging for teams eyeing him in the draft. Though it’s not necessarily rare, it’s interesting how Powell shot 22.9% from distance in games on the road (12 games), 44% at neutral sites (10 games), and 48.6% at home (15 games).
That being said, Powell has all the tools to be a long-tenured NBA player. He’s already a true professional whose maturity, mentality, and ability to mesh with anyone should make for a seamless transition to the next level. Powell has a very high floor as someone who can hit shots and is guaranteed to be a plus defender. He’s a smart connecting piece with terrific length, instincts, malleability, and positional size. Powell’s stock may never be higher, so he’s wise to parlay a strong freshman campaign into being a potential lottery selection.