Being 23-years-old is the truly the only thing preventing Knecht from being considered for the top overall pick, especially in such a weak draft class. The concept of an athletic shot-maker with size and the ability to create for himself has obvious appeal. However, Knecht is one of the five oldest players in this draft and already surpasses over 100 current NBA players in age. If he were three years younger, there’s no doubt that he would attract a larger variety of teams. Instead, Knecht finds himself in somewhat of an unusual situation. Though certainly one of the more talented, immediate-impact players in the draft, he’s too old and too close to his long-term ceiling to entice most of the teams in full rebuild mode.
Between the bottom-dwellers (Washington, San Antonio, Toronto, Detroit, Charlotte, Portland, Memphis, and Utah), San Antonio clearly makes more sense than the others. The teams in this grouping are likely going to swing for the fences (and they should) or have made previous investments in younger wings, which leaves the Spurs as one of the only non-contending organizations who would be okay taking an older guy with less upside. Given the excitement surrounding their generational talent (Victor Wembanyama) and potential to fight for a playoff spot as early as next year, they need professionals who can play. For a team who ranked third-worst in 3P% last season, Knecht serves a clear purpose.
In terms of what Knecht projects to be in the NBA, there are some comparable archetypes. Guys like Buddy Hield, Christian Braun, Max Strus have a lot of similarities, especially when accounting for their respective college careers. Since 2010-11, Knecht is one of only five players to score 750 points, attempt 200 three-pointers, shoot 39% from distance, and have a box plus-minus of 11. The other four are Mark Sears, Darius McGhee, Markus Howard, and Buddy Hield. Of that group, he and Hield are the only two above 6-foot-1. Although Knecht isn’t likely to ever average 20 PPG in the NBA, his shooting alone will be significant. Add in his creation, explosiveness, and diversity as a scorer, and it feels like Knecht is easily one of the safest options in the top ten. Reaching Hield’s status might be his ceiling while his floor feels somewhere between Braun and Strus. Either way, he’s going to be a useful piece.